Nonparametric likelihood based estimation of linear filters for point processes

We consider models for multivariate point processes where the intensity is given nonparametrically in terms of functions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. The likelihood function involves a time integral and is consequently not given in terms of a finite number of kernel evaluations. The main result is a representation of the gradient of the log-likelihood, which we use to derive computable approximations of the log-likelihood and the gradient by time discretization. These approximations are then used to minimize the approximate penalized log-likelihood. For time and memory efficiency the implementation relies crucially on the use of sparse matrices. As an illustration we consider neuron network modeling, and we use this example to investigate how the computational costs of the approximations depend on the resolution of the time discretization. The implementation is available in the R package ppstat.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figure

The maximum of a random walk reflected at a general barrier

We define the reflection of a random walk at a general barrier and derive, in case the increments are light tailed and have negative mean, a necessary and sufficient criterion for the global maximum of the reflected process to be finite a.s. If it is finite a.s., we show that the tail of the distribution of the global maximum decays exponentially fast and derive the precise rate of decay. Finally, we discuss an example from structural biology that motivated the interest in the reflection at a general barrier.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/105051605000000610 in the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

A comment on Stein's unbiased risk estimate for reduced rank estimators

In the framework of matrix valued observables with low rank means, Stein's unbiased risk estimate (SURE) can be useful for risk estimation and for tuning the amount of shrinkage towards low rank matrices. This was demonstrated by Cand\`es et al. (2013) for singular value soft thresholding, which is a Lipschitz continuous estimator. SURE provides an unbiased risk estimate for an estimator whenever the differentiability requirements for Stein's lemma are satisfied. Lipschitz continuity of the estimator is sufficient, but it is emphasized that differentiability Lebesgue almost everywhere isn't. The reduced rank estimator, which gives the best approximation of the observation with a fixed rank, is an example of a discontinuous estimator for which Stein's lemma actually applies. This was observed by Mukherjee et al. (2015), but the proof was incomplete. This brief note gives a sufficient condition for Stein's lemma to hold for estimators with discontinuities, which is then shown to be fulfilled for a class of spectral function estimators including the reduced rank estimator. Singular value hard thresholding does, however, not satisfy the condition, and Stein's lemma does not apply to this estimator.Comment: 11 pages, 1 figur

Causal interpretation of stochastic differential equations

We give a causal interpretation of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) by defining the postintervention SDE resulting from an intervention in an SDE. We show that under Lipschitz conditions, the solution to the postintervention SDE is equal to a uniform limit in probability of postintervention structural equation models based on the Euler scheme of the original SDE, thus relating our definition to mainstream causal concepts. We prove that when the driving noise in the SDE is a L\'evy process, the postintervention distribution is identifiable from the generator of the SDE

Graphical continuous Lyapunov models

The linear Lyapunov equation of a covariance matrix parametrizes the equilibrium covariance matrix of a stochastic process. This parametrization can be interpreted as a new graphical model class, and we show how the model class behaves under marginalization and introduce a method for structure learning via $\ell_1$-penalized loss minimization. Our proposed method is demonstrated to outperform alternative structure learning algorithms in a simulation study, and we illustrate its application for protein phosphorylation network reconstruction.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figure

Degrees of Freedom for Piecewise Lipschitz Estimators

A representation of the degrees of freedom akin to Stein's lemma is given for a class of estimators of a mean value parameter in $\mathbb{R}^n$. Contrary to previous results our representation holds for a range of discontinues estimators. It shows that even though the discontinuities form a Lebesgue null set, they cannot be ignored when computing degrees of freedom. Estimators with discontinuities arise naturally in regression if data driven variable selection is used. Two such examples, namely best subset selection and lasso-OLS, are considered in detail in this paper. For lasso-OLS the general representation leads to an estimate of the degrees of freedom based on the lasso solution path, which in turn can be used for estimating the risk of lasso-OLS. A similar estimate is proposed for best subset selection. The usefulness of the risk estimates for selecting the number of variables is demonstrated via simulations with a particular focus on lasso-OLS.Comment: 113 pages, 89 figure

Graphical modeling of stochastic processes driven by correlated errors

We study a class of graphs that represent local independence structures in stochastic processes allowing for correlated error processes. Several graphs may encode the same local independencies and we characterize such equivalence classes of graphs. In the worst case, the number of conditions in our characterizations grows superpolynomially as a function of the size of the node set in the graph. We show that deciding Markov equivalence is coNP-complete which suggests that our characterizations cannot be improved upon substantially. We prove a global Markov property in the case of a multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process which is driven by correlated Brownian motions.Comment: 43 page